Since 2012, the high-altitude work platform (hereinafter referred to as ldquo; AWP”) The industry has gone through 7 years of rapid development, during this period due to the comprehensive host manufacturers and the industry brand entry; With the continued efforts of traditional AWP manufacturers, the number of renters in the market is increasing dramatically. In the regional market, the price difference based on technical barriers is still in the stage of fluctuation. From the game in the initial stage of market development to the rationality in the final maturity, capital and channels are deeply influencing and determining the development direction of this market.

China's AWP market has been growing at an average annual rate of 36% since 2012, according to the international high-altitude working platform alliance (IPAF). According to the latest research statistics, the sales volume of domestic AWP in 2017 was about 17,000 to 18,000, with a year-on-year growth rate of about 50%. In 2018, the sales volume of domestic AWP reached more than 29,000 units, with a year-on-year growth rate of about 60%. In 2019, the sales volume of domestic industry is expected to reach 45,000-50,000 units, with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 60%, without considering the special factors of purchasing by some big customers at the end of the year. By the end of 2019, it is estimated that the total AWP in China has exceeded 130,000 units, accounting for about 8-9% of the global market, and the global AWP rental market has exceeded 1.5 million units.

catalyzed the evolution of the market pattern of high-altitude platforms

after the rapid expansion, the domestic AWP brand pattern emerged

Nearly two years, in the domestic AWP makers, in addition to the full of zhejiang province, hunan star bond so deep industry many years of professional equipment suppliers, including xugong, quantifies, zoomlion, liugong, traditional construction machinery giant power is also started to aerial work platform in the market, at the same time by byd non-traditional engineering machinery companies are also beginning to airborne AWP market. Among them, the top five brands have almost formed the first camp of the domestic high-altitude work platform, gradually opening up a gap with the second tier main engine factory.

From the perspective of sales scale, the total revenue of zhejiang dingli in the first three quarters of 2019 was 1.45 billion yuan, including 820 million yuan in the domestic market. In 2018, the annual revenue of hunan sinabang reached $115 million, totaling 810 million yuan. In 2019, the sales volume of sinabang scissors is expected to reach nearly 10,000 units, and the annual revenue is expected to increase by more than 50% year on year, exceeding 1.2 billion yuan. XCMG's annual sales of cutting forks are expected to exceed 6000, sales of arm products exceed 1500, and annual revenue is expected to reach 1 billion. Zoomlion, a new entrant in the industry, exhibited its product lineup of four series 21 scissors and two series 4 arms at the Shanghai high altitude machinery exhibition at the end of October 2019. It is expected to record a total sales volume of more than 700 million in 2019.

From the perspective of capacity, relying on IPO and subsequent refinancing, zhejiang has invested in the fourth phase of the arm plant. It is estimated that by the end of 2020, it will have an annual capacity of 26,000 scissors, 6,000 mast columns and 3,200 arm plants. XCMG currently plans to have a cutting fork capacity of 20,000 units and a boom capacity of 3,000 units. Zoomlion has a planned cutting fork capacity of 12,000 to 20,000 units and a boom capacity of 3,000 units. The planned production capacity of hunan sinobang cutting fork is 20,000 units and the production capacity of arm type is more than 2,500 units. The planned cutting fork + arm 25,000. Based on this calculation, if all manufacturers can really complete the capacity release, by the end of 2020 to the middle of 2021, a number of major domestic manufacturers will form a total of 98,000 shear forks, 14,000-15,000 arm capacity. (note: production capacity will not be fully invested in China)

competition is white-hot, capital entry changes the head differentiation of leasing companies

By the end of 2018, there were about 900 leasing companies of a certain scale in China, among which the top three leasing companies accounted for 24.3 percent of the total equipment, and there were about 8 leasing companies with a fleet of more than 1,000 aircraft, accounting for 34.3 percent of the equipment. Big head long tail ” State. By November 2019, the number of leasing companies for high-altitude work platforms in China has reached about 1,600, among which over 1,000 are still at the top of the industry pyramid, and most of the equipment is still divided by many small-scale leasing companies.

Among the top three leasing companies, hongxin jianfa has broken the number of units in 2018 and is expected to have about 15,000 units by the end of 2019. Zhongneng will have over 10,000 units of equipment in 2019. XCMG leased 7,000 units at the end of 2018 and expects to own nearly 10,000 units by the end of 2019. And zhejiang bumblebee's parent company, China railway emergency, entered the industry within half a year or so, the fleet size has reached nearly 8,000, and has laid out more than 40 outlets, will soon to ten thousand units. In addition to the leasing companies listed in the list, yonglijian officially entered the high-altitude platform market in 2019, and completed the opening of six bases in China by August alone, purchasing 500 geni arm frames and 2,000 full force cutting forks, showing a strong intention.

Compared with other engineering equipment, AWP equipment structure, services, technology level is relatively low, so AWP leasing companies are easier to use capital leverage to achieve rapid expansion.

With the rapid development of the high-altitude car rental market in recent years, a number of powerful large leasing companies have emerged from the market. Manufacturers represented by China railway emergency and zhongneng union have realized rapid expansion this year. Hongxin construction development such as the old leading leasing companies are also not to be outdone, relying on their own capital advantages to follow the industry trend expansion.

Starting from 2019, China railway will take the high-altitude operation platform leasing business as an important strategic development direction and gradually increase the capital investment. On November 13, China railway emergency announcement due to business development needs, a wholly-owned subsidiary of bumblebee plans to add 1.2 billion yuan for investment in high-altitude work platform. In addition, it has added new financing leasing business to XCMG finance, zoomlion financial leasing and chentai financial leasing, with the financing amount not exceeding 800 million yuan. On December 4, the company announced that it plans to raise less than 1 billion yuan through non-public stock offerings, including 700 million yuan for the upgrade project of high-altitude work platform and 300 million yuan for the repayment of bank loans.

Zhongneng also relies on the rapid expansion of financing advantages. Zhongneng was jointly established in 2016, and reached 250 million yuan strategic financing cooperation with huayunjin leasing in March 2018. In July 2018, it received tens of millions of RMB pre-a round of investment from sunking capital; In September 2018, it received A series A investment of RMB 62.5 million led by buzhuv.com; In April 2019, it obtained the B round equity financing of $50 million led by source capital and co-invested by buzui venture capital; In July 2019, zhongneng jointly announced a financing of 1.5 billion yuan. According to the company's publicity, zhongneng has reached strategic cooperation with domestic and foreign equipment manufacturers (JLG, lingong, olisheng, and sinobang), and the fleet size has exceeded 10,000 sets. Its network covers 20 provinces, 4 municipalities directly under the central government, 175 prefecture-level cities, and 60 warehousing, logistics and service centers.

the gap continues to expand, the size of the head lessor will enter “ Throughout ten thousand &; Schema

Based on the current financing/procurement plans of several leading leasing companies (only plans, but the possibility of execution is not certain), it is judged that the joint investment of zhongneng in AWP equipment will reach more than 1 billion yuan in the next year or two. We calculate by the number of scissors: arm type machines 8:2, the average price of scissors type products is 70,000, the average price of arm type products is 450,000, so we can estimate that the possible purchase number of scissors type machines is more than 5,000, arm type more than 1,200. Considering that the company can also use leverage in payment terms and other aspects, the funds raised by the company can actually leverage the purchase volume of more than 15,000 units;

Similarly, we calculate China railway's purchasing capacity. The company's financing amount of 12+8=2 billion can theoretically leverage the purchase volume of 20,000 to 30,000 sets of equipment. And if the equipment ownership of zhongneng and huatai breaks through 20,000 units successively, it is estimated that hongxin will be prepared to expand on the existing equipment ownership. Based on this rough calculation, the total purchase demand of the head lessor may exceed 40,000 units in the next two years.

On the other hand, taking into account such factors as preliminary cooperation, procurement mode, equipment performance, financing convenience and business conditions, the former major leasing companies have established a relatively deep cooperation mode with the former major engine factories. For example, zhejiang dingli signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Shanghai hongxin, China railway added financing leasing business to XCMG finance and zoomlion finance leasing, and zhongneng united signed an annual strategic cooperation agreement with xingbang heavy industries.

lease price overall decline, the health of the industry is worrying

According to the data provided by united leasing, in 2018, there were 138 high-altitude platforms leased for every $1 billion spent on construction. In the non-resident market of Western Europe, there are more than 250 AWP products for every $1bn spent on construction; North America is further ahead, with more than 700.

According to the GDP of China's domestic construction industry, the GDP of China's domestic construction industry in 2018 is about 6.18 trillion yuan, or about 0.878 trillion U.S. dollars. According to the average of 2018, the number of leased high-altitude work platforms is about 220,000. Considering the stable GDP growth of construction industry and the increase of AWP product penetration in 2018-2021, we generally focus on the long-term level, and believe that the domestic AWP market has been in short supply for a long time.

However, according to statistics, in 2019, the rent of platforms of all meters will decline to different degrees nationwide, and the rent of platforms with the largest holding volume of 10-meter shears has surpassed that of large and medium-sized projects in some regions. The bottom line & throughout; Even Shanghai, where the atmosphere is most mature, is not immune.

Records show that the overall rent for domestic high-altitude work platforms experienced a sharp decline in 2015. From 2016 to 2018, with the continuous increase of the penetration rate of AWP in the domestic market, the market demand gradually expanded. Although the overall supply of the industry maintained rapid growth, the overall rent was basically stable. However, since 2019, on the one hand, due to the rapid expansion of production capacity in the supply side, on the other hand, due to the business strategies of some large leasing companies, the overall rent of the cutting fork equipment market has fallen sharply.

In this case, the whole industry should pay attention to the operational risk of the leading leasing business to the pressure on the accounts receivable of the main engine plant. Taking the rapid development of excavator industry from 2008 to 2011 as an example, the loose sales credit policy greatly stimulated the downstream demand in the short term, but laid a large hidden trouble of accounts receivable and inventory.

Hope to be the industry practitioners on the one hand is to strictly control the accounts receivable risk, strictly screening high-quality customers; On the other hand, through product diversification and sales destination market diversification to reduce the potential market risks in the future. It is impossible to rule out the possibility that the industry will adjust temporarily after two years. Therefore, in this two-year period, companies that can achieve diversified product layout and overseas business layout can relatively resist industry risks and achieve long-term stable growth.