Sales of excavators in December 2019 rose 26% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations.

According to the statistics of the construction machinery association, in December 2019, the sales of excavators in the industry reached 20,155 units, up 26% year on year (+22% in November). Of these, 17,238 were sold domestically, up 21% year on year; Exports were 2,917, up 6a7% year on year.

In the whole year of 2019, the excavating machine industry sold 235,693 sets in total, with a year-on-year growth of 16%. Among them, the cumulative domestic sales were 209,077 sets, with a year-on-year growth of 13%; exports were 26,616 sets, with a year-on-year growth of 39%; exports accounted for 11.3% of the total sales, an increase of 1.9 PPT over 2018.

From the perspective of different types, the prosperity of big dig/small dig continues, and the proportion of small dig sales increases gradually. Large excavation (above 30t)/ medium excavation (20-30t)/ small excavation (below 20t) sold 2,342 units / 3,379 units / 11,517 units respectively in December, with a year-on-year growth rate of +22/+13%/+23%. Compared with November, the year-on-year growth rate of large/small digs continued to pick up (+21%/+22% in November), while the year-on-year growth rate of medium digs slowed down (+18.5% in November).

(source: haitong securities)

According to haitong securities, the increase in sales of large/small digs reflects the support of demand for mines, large engineering projects and infrastructure projects. The slowdown may be a seasonal disturbance (some real estate projects stopped earlier before the Spring Festival). For the whole of 2019, the proportion of small dig sales is gradually increasing. The bank said, the historical sales data, the first quarter is generally the peak season, so the industry chain is expected to continue to the first quarter of 2020.

According to the official website news of sany heavy industry, its sales volume of excavators will exceed 60,000 units in 2019. Haitong securities estimates that the market share of excavators will be close to 26% in 2019, an increase of nearly 3ppt compared with 2018. It is estimated that the year-on-year growth rate of excavators in December will exceed 40%, much higher than the year-on-year growth rate of 26% in the industry. Haitong securities said that infrastructure, energy as the main downstream earthmoving machinery is experiencing a rapid recovery, excavator industry chain is experiencing. Small peak season & throughout; , the head of the enterprise's leading edge is further enhanced.

At the end of December 2019, cicc issued a research report, predicting that the year-on-year growth of excavator sales in December would exceed market expectations by more than 20%, and recommended zoomlion and haiten international.

Cicc believes that zoomlion's tower crane revenue is expected to double in 2019, and the growth rate of concrete machinery revenue will pick up quarter by quarter. With the company's cash flow from operating activities gradually improving, there is room for repair in P/B valuation. Haitian international is expected to benefit from the economic recovery of the domestic automation industry and the growth dividend generated by manual replacement, driving the continuous increase in gross margin. Cicc pointed out that Haitian international's overseas revenue accounts for about 30%, the gross margin of overseas business is higher than that of China, and the high proportion of overseas business ensures that the company has stronger competitive advantages.

As for & other; Small peak season & throughout; After the performance of the excavator industry chain, some people in the industry said that they would not be too optimistic, mainly because of the high base in 2019, it is difficult to maintain a high growth trend.