In August, the sales volume of excavators was flat compared with the same period last year, and the inflection point of weak construction of infrastructure has not yet arrived.

In August, the sales volume of excavators was flat compared with the same period last year, and the inflection point of weak construction of infrastructure has not yet arrived.

September 20, 2022

Financial Associated Press News,In August, the start-up side was still slightly depressed.,Year-on-year sales of excavators in the month、The ring ratio is flat。Affected by the downward cycle,This year 1-August,A total of 17 excavators sold nationwide.910,000 units,Year-on-year decline of 30.9%,The decline in total sales and domestic sales has narrowed.,Export volume growth has fallen.。

Reporters learned from the construction machinery industry chain related people.,Infrastructure and real estate investment fell short of expectations.,Demand for construction machinery is weakening,Since July, the recovery speed of equipment start-up hours in the main engine factory is slow.。At present,The inventory cycle of the main engine factories represented by excavators is too long.,Although sales rebounded slightly from the previous month.,However, the orders are still lower than the previous high boom stage.。A number of main engine factory insiders predict,Excavator decline will continue to narrow in the second half of the year,But it will take time for the industry to recover.。

Sales in August were flat on a month-on-month basis, and orders were less than in previous years

The downward cycle of construction machinery is still continuing.。According to the statistics of 26 excavator manufacturing enterprises by China Construction Machinery Industry Association,In August 2022, all kinds of excavator 18076 were sold.,Same as the same period last year。

From the product structure,August 2022,Big Dig、Dig in、The sales volume of small diggers is 1308 units respectively.、1,915 and 5,873,The year-on-year changes were:-1.3%、-8.6%%And 10.1%。

The data shows,Sales of small diggers accounted for a relatively high proportion and maintained a positive year-on-year growth rate.。However,A number of people from the Securities Department of domestic mainframe factories told reporters from the Financial Associated Press.,Small digging doesn't actually make money.,It is mainly sold together with Zhongda Diao.。It is expected that the number of capital construction projects will increase.,Medium、Demand for big digging will increase。The data shows,In August, the month-on-month growth rate was 5.48%。

The excavator is for capital construction.“Standard configuration”,Q3 The commencement of infrastructure construction is crucial to the sales of excavators.。According to the CCTV Financial Excavator Index Report,In August, the average monthly operating rate was 63.99%,Slightly higher than this year's 1-Average operating rate in August: 61.45%。This figure is lower than that of 69 excavators in August 2021..52%The operating rate of。

An insider engaged in the decoration of downstream construction projects disclosed to the Financial Associated Press reporter.,Except for the epidemic area,Little impact on overall project progress,However, there are also projects that have not been started.,The proportion is relatively small。The company's project volume in August was slightly lower than last year.,According to his understanding,Other peer companies are also not optimistic.。

“Judging from the current sales volume and orders,,Compared with the lower base in the months from May to August,,7、In August, the month-on-month ratio will increase a little.,About single-digit growth,But compared with the boom months in previous years,,Orders are still much lower.。The utilization rate of equipment returned to 80% of the same period in previous years%、90%The level of。”A responsible person of a main engine factory in Hunan told the Financial Associated Press reporter.。

Accelerating the implementation of special debt in the second half of the year is conducive to improving the start-up rate of infrastructure projects.,And pull the demand for construction machinery.。However,These people said,For now,The rate of funds in place is not particularly ideal.,It may take a while.。

The inflection point of export hedging domestic sales decline has not yet arrived

The first half of this year,Affected by the decline in the construction of infrastructure and real estate projects and the impact of the epidemic,The domestic market sales of construction machinery industry have declined considerably.,The gross profit of related leading companies is under pressure。A Shares of construction machinery companies in the first half of the total operating income of 1560..300 million yuan,Year-on-year decline of 32.7%;Net profit attributable to parent company is 100.100 million yuan,Year-on-year decline of 58.5%。In the view of the above industry insiders,Construction machinery industry terminals are facing the pressure of a sharp decline in demand.。

Domestic and foreign markets are presented.“Cold inside and hot outside”The situation,Domestic excavator sales continued to decline slightly.,Foreign sales are still good.。Data from China Construction Machinery Industry Association,In August, the domestic sales volume of all kinds of excavators was 9096.,Year-on-year decline of 26.3%;8980 units are exported,Year-on-year growth of 56.7%,The proportion of total sales increased to about 50 percent%。

Combined with the data of relevant listed companies in the first half of the year.,Sany Heavy Industry(600031.SH)、Zoomlion(000157.SZ)、Engineer Liu(000528.SZ)The overseas revenue of leading companies increased by 33.%、40%And 56%;Sany Heavy Industry、XCMG(000425.SZ)、Zoomlion、Engineer Liu、Sunward intelligence(002097.SZ)、Shantui shares(000680.SZ)The overseas revenue of such enterprises accounted for 41% of the total revenue respectively.%、33%、18%、30%、36%And 34%。

Take Zoomlion as an example.,Last year, the company's overseas revenue sales accounted for 8..62%,18% in the first half of this year.25%。In the face of shrinking domestic demand,The reporter learned from the insiders close to Zoomlion.,So far this year,The market share of Zhongda Dig of Zhonglian is increasing.,The company intends to increase the proportion of sales of products with relatively high gross profit margin.,To level and hedge the downward pressure on domestic sales.。On the other hand, it is constantly increasing the proportion of overseas sales.,It is expected to continue to improve in the second half of。

According to introduction,Overseas related manufacturing enterprises are affected by epidemic factors.,The supply chain has been greatly impacted,Including steel and energy prices higher than the domestic market.。Take advantage of production costs and supply chain,China's machinery and equipment enterprises have opened a gap in the overseas market.。

Can overseas demand continue this year's hot selling momentum?,An insider of the main engine factory told the Financial Associated Press reporter.,The situation of the economies in the global market is uneven.,It is difficult to maintain large fluctuations in the same direction.。It will be difficult for overseas demand to maintain high growth next year.。

Liugong Securities Department also believes that,Although there may be a downward trend in overseas market demand.,Push back from now.,In the next few years,Predicted decline in external environment 10%At the level of,The company can outperform the industry 20-40 points。In the long run,It is hoped that the revenue share of overseas markets will exceed 50 percent%。

For industry trends,The insiders of the main engine factory believe that,The overcapacity of the industry is gradually being cleared.,Time 1-Can be digested in 2 years,The growth rate of the industry next year will be slightly better than this year.,However, it does not have the conditions to return to the peak of the industry.,The industry may not return to a better state of growth until the year after next.。Engineer Liu said at a recent performance exchange meeting.,7、August(Sales volume)Is the decline narrowing?,It is predicted that the whole second half of the year will continue to narrow.,Next to 11、December may be the same as last year.,There may even be a small increase.。

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