China's construction machinery industry has entered“Shrinking assets”+“Debt contraction”A high-risk period。

In addition to the masters who can still seek gold in foreign markets or some subdivisions.，Many practitioners are facing a severe survival test.：Equipment prices are falling.，Debt remains high.，Operating losses are expanding.，Cash flow is becoming increasingly tight.，Except partly speculative、Relational、In addition to resource-based customers，Demand is also shrinking.，The year-on-year decline in individual provinces has far exceeded 60 percent%，All these factors are added together.，Let the Chinese construction machinery industry feel the crisis that has never happened before.。（China Construction Machinery Market Index in June 2023CMI91.44，Year-on-year decrease of 10.49%，Compared with the previous month, it decreased by 4.44%（BasisCMICriteria for judgment，In June, the index continued to be below the contraction value of 100，Market sentiment is pessimistic.，It continued to decline year on year，Watch out for the accumulation of market downside risks））

Collective pay cut、Unpaid leave、NoNSecond layoff、The manufacturers turned against each other……Facing the downward period far from bottoming out and the upward period far from bottoming out.，“The law of the dark forest”Is playing out in the industry。

 

This round，Speculative small scattered customers、Partially relational/Resource-based customers（By）There is little suspense about quitting.，The operating loss backfilling of some agents is also a big probability event.，Active or passive takeover channels of main engine factories are also taking place.、Factory/Business/Guest's overdue noodles、The overdue rate and bad debt losses continue to rise.。Construction machinery industry is facing《Trisomy》The danger of three flying stars coming at the same time in the world：Sales are difficult+It is difficult to check out+Payment collection is difficult。

 

As a service platform for legal wind control and asset management in the deep ploughing industry，Fa Ge Jun sympathizes with everyone's anxiety.。Face the present，Complaining is not only a way to vent stress.，It does not help to solve the problem.。People in the industry need to face the problem itself.，Think deeply and calmly.，We may not be able to get the true solution.，Nor can it change the macro，But at least try to see the causes and trends behind the problem.，Find a relatively optimal solution for yourself and your team。The raising of the questionIs there any hope for China's construction machinery industry?？Fage team is fortunate to have the support of colleagues in the industry.，Just held an unprecedented grand occasion.“The 5th China Construction Machinery and Financial Leasing Industry Legal Risk Control and Asset Management Conference”，Plus visits to various places after the meeting.，So a relatively large amount of information is collected.，According to what you have seen and heard.，The answer to this question is：China's Construction Machinery Industry Still Has Hope。There's no denying it，At present, the industry is facing many difficulties，But the fundamentals of survival have not changed.，So what comes out is“ A prairie fire will destroy it in vain, ， For in the spring breeze it will grow again. ”All living beings have different attitudes。So：There is through dry（Technology）Iterate to improve efficiency and make big increments.，For example, industry“Tuo Jiang is”、“Mechanical commander”、“Yongchengxin Electronic Technology”Wait for Unicorn，Still favored by the capital market，Orders keep coming。Have by sinking to the terminal，Do a good job of equipment leasing by undertaking projects or cooperating with Party A+The way of resident service，To deal with the sales downturn.，Second, the dilemma of poor digestion of mobile phones。There are agents through brand switching or product expansion.，To fully respond to customer needs、Expand or optimize the customer base，To maintain elite teams and territorial influence.，Waiting for an opportunity to copy the bottom。Through differentiated operation，Specializing in specific models of equipment、Specific customer groups，And share profits by reducing costs.、Lone wolf distribution and other ways to achieve win-win development with customers and partners。There is a report to the trade association，Initiated by Industry Federation of Ministry of Industry and Information Technology，Participation of outstanding representatives of the industry，Fage provides professional support，I'm going to the manufacturer·Seeking top-level design and policy support in the optimization of the mode of agent guarantee。……（Length relationship，Many practical cases are no longer cited and expanded.，Interested can@Fa Ge Jun has a private chat）Behind all this.，Existing industry practitioners' own survival needs，There are also general rules presented by the construction machinery industry in other countries.，There are more safety problems in the equipment manufacturing industry of industry self-help.。So，China's Construction Machinery Industry Still Has Hope，It has its inevitability。The basis of the questionWhy did Mr. Fa Ge put forward the above conclusion?。It is because China's construction machinery industry does not exist independently.，It is an industrial link embedded in China's economy.。So the current situation and problems of the industry，It is not the reason of the industry itself.，On the contrary, the opportunities of the industry are bound to be contained in the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.。So，China's construction machinery industry is bound to exist for a long time。Although with the advancement of urbanization,，The demand for new real estate and infrastructure construction has gradually declined.，Operation and maintenance will be the main demand，Coupled with cyclical shocks and ups and downs，But it doesn't affect the industry.“The sun never sets”Attribute，With China's domestic infrastructure coverage、Urban renewal、Technology iteration、Variables such as domestic substitution，In addition, it exports production capacity to countries such as the Belt and Road.、Overseas occupancy、Increase in penetration rate, etc，China's construction machinery industry will maintain a certain incremental space and trend.。Of course, it should be noted that，Credit、 Warfare 、The epidemic will trigger fluctuations in the economic cycle.，Thus causing short-term disturbance to the demand for construction machinery.，Therefore, the construction machinery industry ultimately shows continuous growth in fluctuations.。

We should know that as an industry with more than one trillion RMB,，The development of construction machinery industry has a certain inertia.，It is impossible to stop immediately like a shock.。Ten thousand steps back.，Even without overseas markets.，The 14th Five-Year Plan period 5.5%Expected annual GDP growth target input，Demand for substitution with tens of millions of domestic equipment in stock、Technological innovation、Unbalanced regional development，And the motivation of grassroots people to create wealth.，It is the ever-changing growth vitality and potential of the construction machinery industry.。Of course，I think we have a general consensus on this issue.。So I won't repeat it。At present, the biggest question is when China's construction machinery industry can recover or get out of the current predicament.？The answer to this question.，Fa Ge Jun believes that it is necessary to learn from Xue Xiaoping's views.，We need to find the answer through the relationship between supply and demand from top to bottom and the improvement of capital from bottom to top.。Top-down supply and demand，Fa Ge Jun recommends you to study this picture of Lv Juan, a teacher of CITIC Securities.，It is very intuitive to illustrate the supply and demand relationship of the construction machinery industry.。

As shown in the figure.，The core driving forces of construction machinery demand include：Infrastructure investment demand、Real estate investment demand、Mine and resource mining needs、Overseas markets, etc。The driving factors of different categories of construction machinery are different.，Varieties strongly related to infrastructure investment include excavators.、Concrete machinery、Scraper equipment、Road equipment、Cranes, etc，Related to real estate investment includes excavators.、Concrete machinery、Scraper equipment、Crane（Pecially tower crane），Equipment associated with mining and resource extraction includes excavators.、Scraper equipment, etc.。But，According to the National Bureau of Statistics，Investment growth is not optimistic.，Real estate、 Capital construction 、Manufacturing、The growth rate of mining industry has slowed down.，Real estate investment remains the main drag。So，It is not optimistic from the top down.。Look from the bottom up，It depends on when the project advance settlement of the end user can be settled.、Rolling settlement of arrears to manufacturers and financial leasing companies，This, in turn, requires the balance of income and expenditure of urban investment and state-owned enterprises, which mainly trigger triangular debt, and the repayment of principal on the premise of interest settlement.。But according to the current data from all sides,，It's obviously not optimistic.。So，This has also become a need to see.“God”The problem of eating。

 

 

At the same time，We're right in the middle of a Juglar cycle recession.，So the industry inflection point will not be known until 2025.。

As teacher Xue Xiaoping said.，The turning point of the recovery of the industry market is the improvement from top to bottom and from bottom to top.，But the answer at this point in time is unknown.。

In that case，What should we do?？

I think this picture is a choice.，Of course, it's not the only choice.。Since this article is about China's construction machinery industry.“On protracted war”，It is necessary for us to make further response analysis for the friends who insist on the industry.。AlterableNow that the inflection point of the recovery of the industry market is unknown，And we are in that Juglar cycle.，Therefore, it is difficult to escape the torrent of the times.。So we have to be prepared to fight a long war.，Wait for the conditions and factors for the market to improve.，And seek better development.。But before that.，We can't just sit back and wait.。Just as Chairman Mao was《On protracted war》A description of the war.“War is a contest of strength.，But power changes its original form in the course of the war.。Here，Subjective efforts，Win more battles，Make fewer mistakes，Is the deciding factor.。Objective factors have the possibility of this change.，But realize this possibility.，It requires a correct policy and subjective efforts.。At this time，The subjective effect is decisive.。”For people in the industry，The trend cannot be changed，The cycle is irreversible，But there are other factors that we can move.。1.In terms of cash flowIf sales are difficult+It is difficult to settle the account+The difficulty of repayment has been sustained.，It's systemic risk.，It's the Heavenly King Lao Tzu.，It doesn't help，Talk about compliance and efficient payment collection，Isn't that bullshit?？First listen： Yes ，There's no money，What kind of money do you want?？Listen again： Yes ，There's no money，How to？The output is not economical.！Think again：Right？Really, right?？If you're really at the end of your tether，Will the cost of collection be considered?？Do you still consider whether the other party has money?？No money, if it can be a reason not to repay.，You don't need the debt that day.。An adult's choice，It's about trade-offs，Is to choose the lesser of two evils.。Let's see who's more anxious.。If you're not in a hurry，Of course, the customer is not in a hurry.，If you're in a hurry，It's time to decide the life and death of the enterprise.，Shouldn't you be thinking about life renewal first?？Get the money back first?？This is not really a multiple choice question.，Now inICU Doorway ，You are not qualified to choose the sequelae of strong drugs.。Only by living can we be qualified to talk about the following problems.。So，Relatively controllable and limited cost of collection compared to life and death，Should we live through today first?？Otherwise，No cash flow to survive，Commercial rights have been taken away.，The company is going to close down.，We should also consider whether the cost of collecting accounts is economical or not. Is it a bit of putting the cart before the horse?？In addition，We're asking questions.：No money？Is this a true answer?？The biggest dividend of reform and opening up is that most of them have become the propertied class.，More or less have a family background.。There's no money here.，Is the investment that the client took out lost all the money?，The leverage we give is used as a chip for investment and even speculation.，Can't win（High）Profit，So the client said.（Investment）The money is gone。But，Is there any money at the bottom of the customer's box?？You can ask your friends around.，Who will give all his money to do the project?。Everyone has a family behind them.，There must be a way out.。Because the client wants to live.，At least the living conditions will not fall too much.。This is a dilemma.：You want to live, too.，Clients want to live, too.，One is a creditor，One is the debtor，One is a seller who used to advance money to customers on credit.，One is the purchaser who contributes to the performance of the agent and purchases the equipment.，It used to be so brotherly.，But now they are facing internal and external difficulties.，The choice to live.？What to do？The business world is brutal.，It is also realistic.。I believe the answer is in everyone's mind.。So，Please manage the customer's three pockets.：Liquidity funds、Fixed assets、Break-even at the bottom of the box。This round，Let's see who can cover their pockets.，It also depends on how much money you can pay for it.，How much did you take out?。

Because ，There is no way？This is a choice to look at yesterday, today and tomorrow.？For those who only look at today.，Believe is the least painful person.，Because when it breaks, it breaks.，Short pain is better than long pain；For those who look at yesterday as well as today，It's painful to believe，Because there is giving up，It means losing，But the probability will collect dreams.，Keep the kindling，Seize the moment“Certainty”；For those who look at yesterday, today and tomorrow.，It is the most painful and tangled.，Because there are too many ideas.！How to do it，Please click to read the first issue of Fa Ge Jun at the 618 Conference.《How to Sell Difficult+It is difficult to settle the account+Survive in the harsh market environment where repayment is difficult》And Mr. Wang Shiquan, the head of the Fage Capital Management Department《How to Recover Accounts Receivable of Large Customers》Courseware。2.Cost structureAt present, the biggest problem in the industry is the channel.“Unprofitable”Here we go，It's not how much I earn now.，It's how much you lose，How much less to lose，How long will it last?？Small and medium-sized digging has been completely lost.，The involution of the Great Dig has begun.。If such an income ratio is still divided according to the current rights, responsibilities and interests,，It is likely to lead to the agency system of the industry.“Crash”The risk of。So，It is necessary to consider optimizing the structure of rights, responsibilities and interests of the industry, or at least to face up to this problem.。

Is there such a possibility?，Factories and agents return to the essence of business for sales services.，Put aside the consideration of market share for a while.，In business, we should exhaust all possibilities to make money and break even first.、Look for profits and start doing it.，Everything starts with better troops and simpler administration.。While supervising the quota and payment for goods of the factory occupied by the dealer，Is it possible to fully decentralize the market side?，Let everyone change from positional warfare to guerrilla warfare.、Mobile warfare，The core of everything is to fight for grain and preserve effective strength.，Make survival the first task of the moment.，It is not a market share with only sales volume, no quality and no profit.。At the same time，Can manufacturers start to consider the use of lone wolf mode?+Outsourcing model，Gather more productive elites and teams，From the perspective of profit sharing or cost deduction，To maximize the ability of super individuals to resist risks and harvest grain.，Reduce the size of the unit，Set up a marketing service organization with output as the core.。Don't aim to pursue the establishment.，Turn to set up a marketing service team with output as the core。You don't need to build it yourself.，It can be implemented by relying on professional external teams in the industry.。Take creditor's rights recovery as an example.：Under the vicious competition, the sales side has generated huge accounts receivable.，Our sales and credit audit input is already high input and low output.。If we continue to operate inefficiently on the creditor side,，We are doomed to have no way to go.。So，The industry needs a strong alliance with an efficient and compliant legal creditor's rights management team.，Efficient and compliant payment collection is the king's way。

3.The industry's risk-sharing mechanism is proposed to be reassessed.Credit sales of construction machinery are supported by financial institutions.，It has experienced the Everbright mortgage model successively.+Insurance Guarantee→Everbright Bank mortgage model+Manufacturer's counter-guarantee→Finance lease+Three stages of manufacturer's counter-guarantee。Combination of Construction Machinery Sales and Financial Services，It provides a convenient way of financing for customers who buy machines.，Promoted the expansion of sales scale of manufacturers and distributors，But it has also led to excessive sales and overcapacity in the industry.，Accumulated a huge credit risk。

The current model has two fatal flaws.：One of them，The distribution of rights, responsibilities and interests is seriously unbalanced.，Dealers can not bear all the risks in the credit sales model of construction machinery.，Income and risk are extremely unequal.。The dealer is the first guarantor，It is the main undertaker of risk in the counter-guarantee mode.，But with the lowest profits.，Financial institutions and manufacturers have higher gross margins.，And not responsible。This situation directly leads to，In the downward cycle of the industry，The dealer's operating income is bound to be unable to cover the risk of bad debts.，From the perspective of a single dealer，The guarantee scale exceeds its net assets several times.，The guarantee ability of dealers is greatly overdrawn.，Once the dealer is at risk，It will have a knock-on effect on manufacturers and financial institutions，There are systemic risks。Second，Distortion of customer performance evaluation，Bad money drives out good，The high-quality development of the industry is facing bottlenecks.。Many financial institutions aim at meeting their own assessment standards.，Use of counter-guarantee mechanism，Require dealers to advance funds for overdue customers，As a result, dishonest customers are always honest.，There is no reward for honest customers.，The reward and punishment mechanism of credit investigation in financial institutions has become a decoration.。In this model，Dealers have become the biggest victims.，The scarce cash flow is squeezed by the advances of overdue customers.，There is a huge cost of capital.，In addition, the counter-guarantee recourse mechanism in the downward cycle，Became the first party to be recovered.。So，Downlink every cycle，There are endless cases of dealers being sued or forced to withdraw.。Dealers who even reluctantly insist，Also because of the curse of counter-guarantee.，And the manufacturer's market share of the Damo Sword.，Faced with a death wish，Business dilemma of not being out of the game。As the second-in-line manufacturer.，And suffer from it。According to public data，The guarantee scale of listed construction machinery manufacturers due to credit sales accounts for 30% of their net assets%Left and right，Unlisted manufacturers have the same guarantee of 80% of their net asset%Left and right，The same guarantee scale of dealers is about 4 times of net assets.。This indicator not only seriously deteriorates the statement，Affect the financing capacity，It is also far beyond the red line of the index of enterprise listing.，In the past two years, a manufacturer and a distributor in our industry have been persuaded to quit by the stock exchange.，IPOThe road cannot continue.。Because of the counter-guarantee.，Excellent enterprises in the industry can not rely on the capital market to become bigger and stronger.，The sustainable development of the industry is worrying.。The industry is bitter“ Guarantee ”For a long time。It's digitizing、Under the background of increasingly perfect construction of credit system and regulation system，To the manufacturer·Dealer Warranty，Financial institutions perform the duties of asset management，Redistribution of rights, responsibilities and interests is widely expected.。The industry can refer to the real estate and automobile credit model.，Manufacturers and distributors as drainage agencies，No warranty is required；Digital assets help financial institutions return to their duties，Specialized division of labor。In the real estate and auto finance loan business，Manufacturers and distributors are only the drainage agencies of credit business.，No warranty is required，A real auditor、Manager、The disposer is the bank.，The credit scale is large、The risk of bad debts is small，Strong binding force of personal credit record，This is the reality.、Cases for reference。Also overseas，Construction machinery industry customer credit purchase machine does not involve manufacturers and dealers.，Only the business relationship between the financial institution and the borrower。With the development of digital construction,，Consumer credit records of lenders on various platforms already exist.，These digital assets are helpful for financial institutions to assess customers' credit needs and repayment ability.，Do a good job of process management。At the same time，By and manufacturer、Dealer cooperation，On the premise of legal compliance，Customer operation data and performance data obtained by the manufacturer according to law，Make credit evaluation for customers，Then carry out precise credit granting and rewards and punishments.；For equipment retrieval、Issues such as assessment and disposal，You can entrust the dealer、Industry asset management companies are handled as lending institutions.，Paid for by financial institution，It can realize the closed-loop management of loans.，It can also give full play to the professionalism of different subjects.，It also effectively solves the problem of risk and income distribution.。Only in this way can we return to the essence.，China's Credit System can Eliminate the False and Retain the True，Financial institutions can return to their duties.。At the same time，The biggest problem of counter-guarantee is simple and crude.，Financial institutions and manufacturers take advantage of their dominant position to set up risk transfer mechanisms.，Let the rights, responsibilities and interests of all parties be unbalanced for a long time.，Failure to achieve their respective responsibilities and professional excellence。The strength of manufacturers lies in R & D and manufacturing.、The strength of dealers lies in sales and service.，The strength of financial institutions lies in capital co-ordination and risk control.，However, under the counter-guarantee model,，Financial institutions have become wholesalers of funds，The rest is thrown to the manufacturer.，This leads to misallocation of resources and role disorder.，This, in turn, leads to adverse risks.。So，This time the manufacturer and distributor warranties are removed.，It's not the manufacturer who wants to pass the buck.，Instead, they want to return to normal business track.，Let everyone do a good job of supporting services in their respective areas of expertise.，Strong alliance，Jointly promote the high-quality development of the construction machinery industry。To sum up，The essence of commercial transaction lies in cooperation and mutual benefit.、Risk sharing，Avoidance of commercial risks should be limited.，All risks can not be transferred to other subjects.，You don't have to take any risks.，Otherwise, it is not only contrary to the principle of fairness.，It is not conducive to the establishment of an honest and mutual trust relationship between the two sides.。Construction machinery credit sales model urgently needs to go to manufacturers、Dealer Warranty，Innovation of risk-return distribution mechanism，Compacting the credit review and management of the borrower，Financial institutions return to their duties，Only in this way can the construction machinery industry develop sustainably with high quality.。ConclusionIn short，Sales are difficult+It is difficult to settle the account+The difficulty of repayment has become the norm in the industry.，If it continues.，It's systemic risk.。When the limited market capacity is not enough to support the existing players，When cash flow dries up, asset prices depreciate and accounts receivable remain high.，Substantial bankruptcy of practitioners in many industries will occur.，At that time, the Pandora's box of the industry will be opened.。Sooner or later this day.，Inevitably appear，This is the trend，This is the rule，I can't stop you.，Immutable。So，If we are ready for the deep ploughing industry,，Just hurry up and save yourself.，Maybe Mr. Fage's suggestion is not mature.，Inaccurate。But，If you or your team or your brand，Be able to start thinking about how to deal with the industry crisis.，Be prepared to fight a protracted war，Fa Ge Jun has also made a modest contribution to the industry.。In short，This time will be the beginning of simplifying life.，Living has become the most important thing at the moment.KPI。 Because ，Only by living are we qualified to talk about the future.。