“Promote the mechanization process”I have heard the slogan for many years.，But I've never felt as urgent as I do now.。The reason is that I recently saw a set of data about China's population.：9.56 million people were born in China in 2022，1.06 million less than in 2021。In the natural growth rate data of 31 provinces,，Data for 20 provinces are negative.，It is estimated that the decline in the birth population in 2023 is more obvious.，Cliff-like population crisis is coming，But we are far from keeping up with the pace of mechanization.。

Concomitant with fertility decline，Is China aging at an accelerated pace?。As defined by the World Bank，The population over 65 years old accounts for more than 14% of the total population%，It has entered a deep aging society.，China's aging rate in 2022 is close to 15.%，An estimated 29 million people will be over 60 years old in 2023.。

Looking back on the past twenty years，The rapid development of China's economy is inseparable from the boost of the demographic dividend.。If the demographic dividend is not，Who will fill the gap in productivity?？I'm afraid there's only one answer.：Mechanics。

Labor shortage changes traditional ideas

Forcing mechanization to accelerate

“Mechanization”The concept has a long history，It refers to the use of machinery to replace manual labor to complete production operations.。The factory's mechanized production line.，Mechanization in agricultural production，Mechanized construction in engineering operation, etc.。Despite the rapid development of technology in the world，But it seems to me，The development of mechanization in China is not fast in traditional industries and basic construction industries.。

Many entrepreneurs rising from the grass roots，To some extent, the concept of solidification has played a counterforce.。Why use a machine when you can hire someone to do it?？Why replace the machine tool that can be used with a new one?？So we can often see，In agricultural production、Municipal related work、Urban infrastructure construction、Many areas of small and medium-sized manufacturing，Practitioners with a large number of basic positions，And they are generally older.。Local managers for employment consideration，To some extent, it has played a catalytic role.。There is a premise for such a concept and production structure.：You can hire people.，And that labor cost is low.。

The three-year epidemic has changed such a fixed concept a lot.。A friend who is engaged in the sale of industrial robots.，“During the epidemic，In many factories, workers in key positions are locked up in their homes.，The whole production line is facing a shutdown.，No one comes to work even with three salaries.。The bosses decided to buy our robotic arm only after they suffered a shutdown.，The efficiency is improved、The production capacity is more stable、It also saves management costs.……”Once new ideas and habits are formed,，It's hard to change it back.。

In many cases, it is not excellent machines that promote the development of the industry.，It's a shortage of productivity.、The rise in labor costs has forced the promotion of mechanization.。Besides，When young people who grow up with digital products step into society，Who wants to go to the factory to make screws?？

China's urbanization is accelerating

Engineering accessories or welcome“A golden decade”

From another perspective.，The fertility rate is also related to the urbanization rate.。Although fertility rates may be influenced by religious beliefs and cultural traditions in each country，But the higher the urbanization rate.、The rule that countries and regions with higher per capita income have lower fertility is very obvious.。For example，The urbanization rate is high、Countries with low fertility include many developed countries in Europe and the United States.，There is also Korea、Japan and other Asian countries，And the United Arab Emirates、Qatar and other Islamic countries。We can find out，These countries and regions are regions with high penetration rate of construction machinery accessories.。

Proposed by China since 2014“National New Urbanization Plan”，In the last ten years，Urbanization and infrastructure are improving day by day。At this stage, small and medium-sized construction machinery is developing rapidly.，Terminal small digging is becoming more and more popular。But in many subdivided application fields,、At the end of the construction tool，We compare the urbanization rate to 75%The above European and American countries are still lagging behind.。

For example, in Europe and America，A skid steer loader with different accessories can handle all the garden construction.，However, the domestic garden work is still mainly artificial.。If we look at cost efficiency,，One Skid Steer Loader Plus Attachment Solution Is Worth 20 Skilled Landscapers，The one-time input cost will not exceed the annual salary expenditure of 10 people.。

Another example is the milling operation of road maintenance.，A skid steer loader with accessories such as a self-leveling milling machine，It can be fully competent for the daily maintenance of road potholes.，Such as：Milling、Sweep、Shovel loading process，A multi-purpose machine is brought into full play.。But there are not many cases of such solutions in China.，Traditional solutions are either small-scale manual demolition，Or close the road and use large equipment to mill as a whole。

In fact, many people have seen the prospect of the engineering accessories market.，But from“ Saw ”To“ Accept ”And then to“Popularization”Let the bullet fly a little longer.。If we say that China's urbanization has promoted the popularization of small digging in the past decade.，It is believed that the next ten years will be a golden period for the development of engineering accessories.。

From the underlying logic of real estate cold

Looking at the Development Prospect of Engineering Fittings

Observe 2023，Of the real estate market“A big change”It deserves our special attention.。The property market went from hot to cold a few years ago.，Macro-control from“Limit the price and purchase”To“Limit the drop”，The reason is the lack of demand caused by the population problem.。Building material aggregate corresponding to real estate、 Iron and steel 、Electricity、The whole supply chain of coal, ore and so on has been impacted to varying degrees.。This is also one of the underlying logic of this year's construction machinery industry cycle trough.。

When real estate suffers、The mine is cold，When the urban infrastructure construction reaches a certain scale，When the railway、Formation of highway backbone network。The drastic earthwork will be significantly reduced.；Lower demand for new houses，Renovation of old houses increased；Municipal maintenance、There will be more elaborate projects.；Resource regeneration、Recycling will become a trend.……

With the cold of real estate，It is not difficult to infer that the demand for main equipment of construction machinery will gradually decrease.。But China's urban roads、Real estate has enough volume as the basic plate.，All these will support the development of multi-purpose engineering accessories.。

Declining birthrate in China，Will be transformative for many industries.“Inducement”。Future，With the reduction of labor force、With the improvement of population quality and the rise of labor costs,，Construction will be highly dependent on mechanization，Specialization of Dependent Engineering Accessories。Existing mainframe enterprises and even accessories enterprises may usher in several times.“Shuffle”，This is the pain of the construction machinery industry.，It is also the only way for the market to become mature and developed.。